The Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) has entered into a collaboration with S& Global Energy to assess the risk to the global rice market due to El Nino. A statement from IREF said global rice production is projected to decline 9 million tonnes (mt) in the 2026-27 marketing year (October-September) as El Nino, rising input costs and geopolitical tensions reshape production and trade. At the same time, elevated input costs will increase production risks for farmers and potentially alter planting decisions across Asia. “Against this backdrop, S&P Global projects global rice production to decline to 536.4 million tonnes,” the statement said. It will explore if current market movements accurately capture the potential impact of El Nino and assess price prospects over the coming 52 weeks, the statement said.