Voters were waiting for election promises to show up as line items, while investors and rating agencies were watching whether talk of fiscal discipline would be matched by numbers. What emerged was a document that leans heavily on welfare spending even as it insists, repeatedly, that the State’s finances are under stress. Key highlightsThe budget points to a government keen to be seen delivering on its campaign commitments while still claiming credit for restraint. Gaps in the budget’s fiscal narrativeThe gaps become visible once the welfare announcements are set against the underlying arithmetic. The way forwardThe government’s own medium-term fiscal plan, covering the period through the 2028 to 2029 fiscal year, sets out the way forward.