However, crude oil prices have started moving higher again. A sustained rise in crude prices could weigh on the rupee by increasing India’s import bill and demand for dollars. Overall, positive capital flows continue to provide a cushion for the rupee, but rising crude oil prices have limited the scope for appreciation. The technical setup in the dollar index also points to the possibility of further downside in the rupee. However, a break below 99.50 in the dollar index could reverse the trend and help the rupee recover beyond 95.