Brazilian markets are starting to price in a fourth term for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but a warning from UBS about a 2027 fiscal reckoning highlights the risk baked into that bet. The 2027 fiscal reckoning looms as the central uncertainty, yet the market seems to be looking past it for now. Browse the directory →What is the 2027 fiscal reckoning? From The Rio Times Related coverage · 10 Aug 2026 São Paulo Daily Brief — Monday, August 10, 2026 Read →Why do markets rally on Lula 4 despite the 2027 fiscal reckoning? 4) Reports from major banks like UBS that may use ’fiscal bomb’ language, which could trigger sell-offs.