While the air and ground war in Ukraine grinds on, Moscow is increasing pressure on Kyiv’s western allies. Since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has gained some 70,000 square kilometers. Moscow still has the ability to attack night after night, exposing weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defense system and targeting critical infrastructure. Regarding the Russian drone incursion into Poland, he mused that it could have been a mistake before pledging to defend NATO allies in the event of a Russian attack. This is certainly an improvement on his earlier threats to NATO solidarity, but it is at best a backstop against a full-blown Russian escalation.