Each message is encrypted with a different AES key (due to the Double Ratchet), which limits the practical blast radius of a cache-timing attack and makes practical exploitation difficult (since you can’t effectively replay decryption in order to leak bits about the key). This value is used for authenticating all messages authenticated under that AES key, rather than for a given (key, nonce) pair. Note: Your 128-bit randomly generated AES keys already have this probability baked into their selection, but this specific analysis doesn’t really apply for 128-bit keys since AES is a PRP, not a PRF, so there is no “collision” risk.