A 15% return with 10% volatility implies a 93% chance of a positive return in a year (=> 7% bad years) but only a 67% chance of having a positive month (=> 33% bad months) and a 50.02% chance of a positive second (=> every other second will have a negative return). Maximizing the probability of such events does not translate into maximizing the payoffs. An option seller makes continuous “small” amounts of income while an option buyer loses money and makes money in one shot only in case of the occurrence of a rare event.