Tools for Making Difficult Decisions

Using Predictions: In some sense, all decisions are a predictions – you predict that the decision you make maximizes your utility, for some definition of utility: It’s about acknowledging that we’re already making a prediction about the future every time we make a decision, so we’re better off if we make that explicit. Luke Burgis advocates for constructing a personal “values hierarchy”, ideally prior to making a difficult decision, and inspecting each aspect of the decision in light of how they impact the values hierarchy.