Yesterday, together with Pavel Baev I participated in a Marshall Center panel on the regional fallout of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. ContextRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a devastating impact on humanitarian conditions within Ukraine itself. At the same time, Russian military advances in Ukraine appear to have stalled in most operational theatres. This deadlock is dangerous as Putin needs a “special military operation” victory to support his “everything going according to plan” narrative. Russian military reforms introduced by Defense Minister Serdyukov 2009-2012 means mass mobilization is not possible – the Russian military does not have the capacity or infrastructure to train such large numbers.