In the tropical AtlanticThe National Hurricane Center has increased the development odds on the large disturbance in the tropical Atlantic. The long-range forecastThere’s potential good news in the long-range forecasts from the computer forecast models. But when multiple computer forecast systems all predict a large and dramatic dip in the jet stream, we take that forecast as being somewhat less uncertain. We also have to be aware that strong jet stream dips can scoop tropical systems out of the western Caribbean or southern Gulf and pull them north. There are hints of that in some of the long-range forecasts, but the odds at this point are in the very low range.