The race pits Glenn Youngkin, a Republican businessman, against former Governor Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat. Youngkin’s challenge is to win over both a Republican base devoted to Trump and moderate suburban voters who have tended to vote for Democrats, especially in the Trump era. If Youngkin wins, the commonwealth’s long-term trajectory in national elections is unlikely to shift—but a Youngkin win would also suggest just how deep Democrats’ danger is elsewhere in 2022.