Putin made a deal with Prigozhin, supposedly one that had the rebel leader safely in Belarus and the Wagner Group members offered a choice of joining the Russian military, going back to family or heading to Belarus. The fact that Prigozhin's team was able to mount such a bold effort – and publicly denounce the war as a strategic mistake that cost many Russian lives – is damaging to the Russian leader, adds Hadley, author of the new book "Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama." But it's also possible that in six months, the dramatic events of the past week "will be a blip in Russia's war effort and not a definite pivot" that results in an end to the war and Putin's leadership, he warns.