But analyzing how Trump and Harris’ polling averages in the seven swing states compare to the 2020 results in those same contests between Trump and President Joe Biden at least hints at just how similarly razor-thin the 2024 race appears to be. More specific comparisons between the two elections, however, can be informative if one is looking at segments such as the extent to which Harris is outperforming Biden or the extent to which Trump’s numbers compare to his percentages in 2020, according to Sunshine Hillygus, a professor of political science at Duke University. At the same time, the Times’ poll shows Trump is underperforming with women (40% head-to-head with Harris) after getting 44% of their vote against Biden four years ago.