Along with tighter beginning stocks, this is expected to contribute to minimal slaughter and reduced beef production. According to the report, Wagyu production continues to expand as producers chase premium carcass prices. According to Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), slaughter numbers for Wagyu cattle rose 3% in 2024, while crossbreed and dairy cow numbers declined up to 5%. Limited availability of affordable beef is straining domestic supply, especially as inflation pushes consumers to seek cheaper alternatives to imported meat. Ending beef stocks remain high, but FAS/Tokyo notes that a recovery in consumer confidence is needed to draw them down​.