US soybean exports could fall 20% without China deal China has been the largest market for US soybeans15 May 2025 15 May 2025 2 minute read 2 minute read By: By: Global Ag Media North America AsiaUS soybean exports may drop 20% and the prices paid to farmers will plunge if the United States and China fail to reach a deal in their trade dispute limiting US soybeans from its largest market, Reuters reported, citing agribusiness consultants AgResource on Wednesday. US soybeans exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a deal, AgResource President Dan Basse told Reuters on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva. "It’s important that any US/China trade deal happen by late summer or the export forecast will become reality pressuring US farm income. China has been a critical market for US farmers representing more than half of US soybean exports in the most recent marketing year. China, the world's largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil.