However you slice and dice the statistics — and there are numerous ways stats can be sliced and diced — the global aluminum market is tight. Aluminum deficit to surplusAccording to the International Aluminum Institute (IAI), total global aluminum production rose to 5.74 million metric tons in May. Those high prices have been driving a rise in aluminum output outside of China this spring. Output gains could cap pricesWe wrote last week about peak coal/peak aluminum in China and speculated about the knock-on effect for prices. But rising global output alone could be enough to cap further global aluminum price rises this year as many of the major economies get close to pre-pandemic levels of consumption.