If China’s tactic is blockade, the USN needs lots of frigates. A US intervention risks drawing in Japan, too—and, as Chinese, Taiwanese, American and Japanese warships and warplanes tangle over the Pacific shipping lanes, violence is sure to break out. What follows, in several of CSIS’s scenarios, is a convoy war not dissimilar to the Battle of the Atlantic in World War II. According to the think tank, a convoy war falling just short of a full-scale regional war could cost the Americans 34 warships, including two aircraft carriers, as well as hundreds of aircraft. America needs frigates the way Taiwan needs free and navigable seas.