India
DE
Afghanistan: A fast-evolving powder keg waiting to explode
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VIKRAM SOOD'S PERSPECTIVES...
Ahmed Shah Massoud, the Lion of Panjshir and feared by the Taliban, was assassinated by two assassins who came from Belgium to Panjshir via Pakistan. Today, his son Ahmed Massoud is somewhere in the mountains of Panjshir as the Pakistan Army in Taliban camouflage and helped by drones, hunt for him and his associate, Amrullah Saleh.19 terrorists attacked the United States with cataclysmic results bringing the world to a standstill. Today, the Taliban who had sheltered Al Qaeda, are ruling in Kabul. Helping these ogres were the Pakistani Army who themselves had sheltered Osama bin Laden for years in Abbottabad while they pretended to cooperate in the America-led Global War on Terror. September 11, 2021: The Taliban, who hosted Al Qaeda control Kabul, and no Western nation wants to name Pakistan as the sponsor of terrorism.Obviously, terrorism pays and there is considerable merit in sponsoring terrorism. That is the message for the future.It is necessary here to recapitulate a few facts about the players in this game.The Taliban are a jihadi force that believes in the practice, imposition and spread of extreme Sunni Islam through conquest and violence. Having won an iconic jihadi victory, they have begun to rule strictly according to the Sharia and will not dilute their creed. They attained victory in Kabul with Pakistani assistance in military and psywar strategy, sanctuaries and military hardware. 14 members of the Taliban cabinet are on the UNSC terrorism blacklist; their sponsor, Pakistan is on the Grey List of the FATC.Second, Pakistani establishment’s hatred for India is a given, unchanging and vicious. It is also getting Islamised. The Pakistan state will survive so long as it nurtures and spreads enmity with India. They have been at it since 1947 and have not given up their dream. Both Taliban and Pakistan now rejoice that it was their faith that defeated two superpowers; the rest should now be easy. For Pakistan control of Afghanistan was always about seeking security against India. The Taliban victory in Kabul will nourish the Pakistani dream of attaining equality with India followed by its breakup. Ghazwa-e-Hind is their ultimate dream. Third, the U.S., a mighty superpower has left Afghanistan, defeated by a religious force. This is the essential truth; whatever spin might be put on this by the Americans and their allies. US reputation and western systems of democracy and liberalism are the biggest losers. Anybody who knew the region knew this project was doomed to fail. America had chosen the wrong ally and fought in the wrong country. It was a matter of when, not if. Pentagon pressures had presumably forced a continuation of this war even as President Obama wanted to withdraw American forces.The Taliban are a barbaric lot who want to push Afghans and everyone else into medieval obscurantism. The Americans with their arrogance and narcissistic description of their national interests just wanted to leave and Pakistan, the resident opportunist who sees this as its last chance to grab Kashmir, got into a huddle seeking attainment of their separate goals. These three may be centre stage today but waiting to storm in are China and its two friends, Russia and Iran, all with different goals.Quite clearly the present situation is largely the result of a three-way deal.The first part of the deal was between the Americans and the Taliban about the details and mechanics of allowing the Americans to leave. The Taliban played their cards smartly and are holding several Americans hostage to be released possibly after the US grants the Taliban regime some legitimacy. Some leaders willing to leave for safer havens would be allowed to escape. The second deal would have been a U.S.-Pakistan deal to encourage Pakistan to facilitate a U.S.-Taliban agreement and reward Pakistan for its efforts. Almost certainly this would allow Pakistan complete freedom to deal with Afghanistan, including making the Afghan National Army ineffective so that it did not pose any threat to the Taliban or later to the Pakistani Army. Both would have agreed that is would be good optics if it appeared that they had been negotiating with a reformed Taliban, that the present threat to Afghanistan was from other terrorist organizations likely the Islamic State Khorasan Province and the Pakistani hand had to be shown to be clean.The third deal was between the Taliban and Pakistan for a post-victory arrangement in Kabul. A Pakistan-Taliban deal which would enable Pakistani overlordship over Afghanistan for an unspecified length of time and Pakistan veto on government formation and Afghan foreign policies especially with neighbouring countries. Afghanistan’s ‘country boys,’ as they were fondly referred to by a British general, dot the countryside with remnants of Al Qaeda, the so-called Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), an ISI bogey, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, jihadis from Central Asia and China and Pakistan’s India-specific jihadis. Afghanistan is a fast-evolving powder keg waiting to explode and the debris will fall on the neighbourhood.Today, 20 years later one hears that Americans are now trying to create a narrative to support renowned terror groups like Al Qaeda and Taliban in a supposed fight against Islamist terror of the ISKP and its Arab affiliates. Apparently, the US wants to stay on. This intended somersault to indulge the violent agendas of the Islamists in my area, means the US can no longer guarantee global security. It is behaving more like a gambler who has lost but insists on playing on. The world is not your casino, Joe Biden.The Islamists may dislike people from other religions and hate Shias but with those from NATO who occupied their land, they will seek revenge, slowly and repeatedly. There will be no closure.Source : Economic Times , September 10, 2021