The speed with which US sources have been blaming the IS – Khorasan (IS-K) for the massive terrorist attack at Kabul airport on August 26, sounds like a weak alibi. US intelligence had earlier predicted, on August 12, that it would be about three months before the Taliban would reach Kabul. Instead, the Taliban entered Kabul on August 14. This sudden ability to collect this information about the terrorist attack even as the bodies and the injured were being removed from the sight so soon after a failure to predict the fall of Kabul, only makes the claim appear to be motivated. It is to build a new story line, a new narrative. Americans would find it embarrassing to be seen as the ones who negotiated their exit with the Taliban just a few months ago and who then carried out the attack which killed many Americans.The primary goal thus would be to get the Taliban – and by extension - Pakistan, out of the firing line and let the blame fall on IS-K. This would suit the Taliban too. It matters little to the Afghan if this was the Taliban or the IS Khorasan that killed; the primary message of fear among the Afghans and foreigners, as a means of control has been delivered. A force inexperienced in the technique and art of governance has only fear as a weapon to enforce its diktat.  This fear will become real, once the Taliban learn how to use the biometric devices the US have left behind which have the fingerprints, and eye scans of the Afghans who worked for the Americans as interpreters or in other capacitiesAfghanistan today is becoming Jihad Central, and it is radical and Sunni; over time, its own momentum after a victory of their Faith over another superpower from another faith, will carry its activities into other parts of the region, beginning Central Asia and possibly India.  Apart from Al Qaeda, many of whose remnants embedded themselves with the Taliban, there are other groups that exist.  The IS-K came into being in 2015 and included former Tehrik-e-Taliban terrorists. The US and Afghan forces as well as Taliban, separately had pushed back the IS-K substantially. The powerful Haqqani Network, which Admiral Mike Mullen described in 2011 as the veritable arm of the ISI, has strong allegiance to Pakistan and operates separately when needed.Then there are smaller groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (which consists of extremists from other Pakistani Sunni extremists), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and even the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement of the Uighurs. India-centric jihadi organisations like the Lashkar-e Tayyaba and Jaish e Mohammed fetched up in Kabul, to exult in the Taliban victory, express solidarity and hope for assistance for their cause in Kashmir. In the past Pakistan has been very adept at creating new terror outfits either when one of them did not perform or had been exposed.  This was common in Jammu and Kashmir in the 1990s. IS-K could well be a front created by Pakistan to divert allegations and suspicion.It is expected that in the early months the Taliban would try to settle down into controlling the territory, overpowering other groups and to govern, something about which  they have no experience. administering it. Presumably this would be the advice from their Pakistani mentors. For the present, many would eye the bonanza that the US administration has left behind. Most of it would be cornered by the Pakistan army but surely a considerable amount will go to the Taliban. Along with the Pakistanis, they now possess more Blackhawk helicopters than many countries. It is estimated that the US left behind US equipment worth $ 85 billion, including 75000 vehicles, over 200 airplanes and helicopters, and significantly over 600,000 small arms and weapons. Future terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir will be attacking Indians with American weapons. Not only that, also left behind are night vision goggles, body armour which would be very useful for terrorists.There have been occasional statements from Taliban representatives about jihad in Kashmir. The possibility of the jihad shifting from Afghanistan to Kashmir is real, as the out of work jihadi foot soldiers must be kept busy. But the Taliban would need to settle down first. In the short-term though it is unlikely that there will be a major incident in Jammu and Kashmir; their mentors are aware of the capabilities of Indian security forces and the new policy of the Indian government.  Next year it could be different especially with elections in UP and this kind of trouble is difficult to trace to an external source.  Next year something else could happen. Afghans are well known for their ability to stick together against a foreign invasion but to fall out very quickly into ethnic and sectarian war zones once the foreign threat has faded. There is also the lure of the narcotics trade. A great deal would ultimately depend on whether Afghanistan is ruled by proxy from the Shuras of Quetta, Peshawar and Miran Shah or from Quetta and Kabul.India needs to be watchful, not despondent.Source : Economic Times, August 27, 2021