China declined an opportunity to join Iran in its June 2025 confrontation with the United States and Israel. They fear Tehran’s perceived pursuit of nuclear weapons could lead Israel or the United States to attack Iran again. In such a war, Iran could retaliate against neighboring Gulf countries, whose commercial ties with China vastly exceed those between Iran and the PRC. Another path to war would be if Iran did obtain nuclear weapons; the capacity could embolden Tehran to behave more aggressively. More importantly, PRC officials still prefer that the United States bear the economic and diplomatic costs of denying Iran nuclear weapons.