The war in Ukraine grinds on into its fourth year, and yet peace seems elusive. Despite Western portrayals of fragility, Russia’s goals are stable: secure its strategic perimeter, prevent Ukraine becoming a NATO outpost, and weaken nationalist forces. At the same time, we see in Western Europe electoral pressures that may be pushing leaders toward realism. When Trump speaks of peace, the real test is whether he would actually end arms supplies to Ukraine - directly or indirectly, whether free or paid for. Vance recently said that if the Europeans wanted to continue the war in Ukraine, the U.S. would oblige by selling arms.