Sugar trader Czarnikow cut its 2026/27 global sugar balance estimate from a surplus of 1.4 MMT to a deficit of 100,000 MT on June 11, citing Brazilian sugar mills diverting output toward ethanol amid rising crude oil prices linked to the US-Iran war. The International Sugar Organization forecast a record global sugar crop of 182 MMT for 2025/26, up 3.5% year-on-year, but warned that 2026/27 production would fall 1.15% to 180 MMT with a deficit of 262,000 MT due to El Nino risks in India and Thailand. The USDA projected that global 2026/27 sugar production would fall 6.5% year-on-year to 184.854 MMT, while human sugar consumption is expected to rise 0.4% to a record 179.991 MMT, tightening the balance sheet considerably.