The firm says delays in energization and large-load attrition are making it increasingly difficult to forecast how much demand will actually materialize on ERCOT's grid. The firm also identifies engineering, procurement and construction capacity, high-voltage equipment and permitting as growing bottlenecks to building new generation. Ascend expects ERCOT’s reserve margins will remain healthy through 2026 before tightening as load growth outpaces supply additions. Those financing challenges are compounded by ERCOT's energy-only market design, which relies on scarcity pricing to incentivize new generation. Ascend expects wholesale prices to rise in the near term as demand grows before stabilizing over the longer term as additional renewable generation comes online.