Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced three federal by-elections for Monday, August 31. The riding to watch is Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, where Carney created the vacancy when he made the surprise move of appointing incumbent Conservative MP Richard Martel to the Senate. But a Liberal victory in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, though very possible, is far from a sure thing. A Liberal win in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord would be interpreted as a vote of confidence in Carney’s leadership and his handling of the ongoing trade war with the United States. A Liberal win in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord could be seen as proof of the influential role that Carney could play in the provincial election and on the larger question of national unity.