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Pollsters Keep Striking Out. Why Do We Keep Trusting Them?
['Chuck Muth', 'Mr. Muth Is President Of Citizen Outreach', 'Founder Of Campaigndoctor.Com', 'Publisher Of Nevada News', 'Views. His Views Are His Own. He Can Be Reached At Chuck Chuckmuth.Com.']
Nevada News and Views
Even the pollsters' own defenders can't spin their way out of this one.
A veteran Wisconsin political reporter put it bluntly on social media, saying primary polls shouldn't be treated like breaking news because Wisconsin primaries are brutally hard to poll.
Campaigns get covered based on the polling snapshot, not the fundamentals.
But it's not just primary polling.
Add in late-breaking news, shifting campaign dynamics, and pollsters guessing at turnout models, and you've got a discipline that's more art-project guesswork than science.