The shortage has increased concerns about Ukraine’s ability to protect major cities and critical infrastructure from sustained Russian missile attacks. Ukrainian officials have also warned about increased Russian missile production ahead of winter. The ISW assessment suggests that Russia’s willingness to negotiate could depend partly on Moscow’s perception of its military prospects. NATO and European partners have been working to increase support for Ukraine’s air-defence capabilities, amid concerns about Russia’s missile production and the approaching winter. The ISW assessment indicates that the balance between Russia’s offensive missile capacity and Ukraine’s air-defence capabilities could become particularly important as winter 2026 approaches.