The gap is now clearest between traditional rates markets and prediction venues: CME FedWatch puts the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at about 44%, while Kalshi has it near 32% and Polymarket at roughly 33%. Why CME, Kalshi and Polymarket Do Not AgreeThe differences between the three markets are not necessarily evidence that one is mispriced. Kalshi’s September market currently assigns about 65% to no change, 32% to a 25-basis-point hike and only around 2% to a 25-basis-point cut. The remaining disagreement is primarily between prediction markets and Fed Funds futures rather than between Kalshi and Polymarket themselves. CME still sees something close to a two-in-five chance of a hike, while Kalshi and Polymarket are closer to one-in-three.