The Trump administration’s latest trade campaign against China’s dominant solar industry could do little more than raise consumers’ costs, industry insiders warn. On Friday, Washington imposed a 15% tariff and price floors on all imported polysilicon, a crucial material in solar panels. In the near term, the move may not be noticeable to consumers, as solar installers run down healthy inventory levels. But prices will inevitably rise by 2028, according to a BloombergNEF forecast, and some projects will inevitably be canceled, because the US solar manufacturing base, especially for highly specialized components like solar wafers, is far smaller than demand. Instead, he said, the tariffs are likely to become a negotiating chip the administration can trade to induce preferred investors to back new manufacturing projects.