Many factors have helped offset the dropoff in crude tankers exiting the Persian Gulf since the Iran war began in February. Gulf exporters ramped up alternative routes, China slashed imports, the US and Europe drew on strategic reserves, and higher prices cut into demand. But it’s becoming clear that another vital, if relatively modest, boost came from increased production in a handful of Western-hemisphere countries outside the top tier of global petrostates. The new cohort of LatAm petrostates is emerging as an OPEC counterweight the US can’t afford to neglect, especially since its barrels don’t have to move through any dangerous straits. “It’s very important to bring this oil online,” Carl-Yoder said, “and provide a foil to the Middle East.”