The House measure simply extended current funding largely at existing levels through December 4, while the Senate’s subsequent version would run through December 11 and contains provisions absent from the House bill. The October 1 shutdown market therefore measures whether a shutdown occurs around that specific deadline, not whether another funding confrontation emerges in December. That leaves Bitcoin exposed to several simultaneous catalysts: inflation, Federal Reserve expectations, oil prices, Iran-related developments and the evolving U.S. funding negotiations.