“The foundations underpinning America’s challenge to China’s dominance of the rare earth supply chain remain thin.” China’s rare earth exports to Japan fell 51% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, according to Nikkei, a decline sharper than the 16% drop in Beijing’s overall rare earth exports over the same period. China’s rare earth exports to the US also fell 28% over the same period. A Cayman Islands-registered company sent an ethnic Chinese representative to dine with technical staff at a local rare earth firm in Inner Mongolia, starting with small talk before asking for the exact mixing ratio of P507, a rare earth extraction chemical, with payment negotiable. Read: China exit rules tightened to guard rare earth, battery secretsFollow Jeff Pao on X at @jeffpao3