“Global oil supply has fallen well below demand” the IEA said in a monthly reportThis year’s expected supply drop will put global supply around 1.27 million bpd below demand this year. That would put global supply around 1.27 million bpd below demand this year, widening from an 860,000 bpd deficit implied from the IEA’s July forecasts. “The nascent recovery underway from mid-May narrowed the supply deficit in June, but renewed hostilities undermined trade flows,” it said. For 2027, the agency sees global supply outstripping total demand by 4.61 million bpd, assuming de-escalation in the coming months. The IEA now expects global demand to contract this year by 1.6 million bpd, steeper than the roughly 1 million bpd drop seen last month.