Societe Generale analysts Brendan McKenna and Dev Ashish outline scenarios for Brazil’s 2026 election, assigning a 65% probability to President Lula winning a fourth term and 30% to Flavio. They argue another Lula administration would feature loose fiscal policy, rising debt and continued state intervention, with congress composition crucial for Brazil’s debt trajectory and broader macro stability. Election scenarios and fiscal trajectory"We believe Brazil will push back on Latin America’s broad shift to the political right and President Lula will secure a 4th term in office." "Flavio Wins (30%): Would need to be cleared of alleged connections to local scandals and/or for Lula to make a policy mistake." "Another Lula administration is likely to resemble prior terms: loose fiscal, rising debt and state intervention across the economy."