Andy Burnham has been briefed that the UK economy will barely grow next year if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues until the end of 2026. Treasury sources have confirmed that internal modelling presented to the new prime minister and chancellor suggests UK GDP growth could be as low as 0.3% in 2027, as first reported by Bloomberg. The UK economy saw a strong start to the year, but growth then faltered with the conflict in the Middle East affecting some businesses. The Iran war has pushed up oil and fuel prices, and also disrupted supply chains. The Treasury modelling for that scenario was that the UK economy would grow by 0.9% over 2026 - slightly under the 1.1% forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March.