CME FedWatch Tool pricing currently implies a 45% probability that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points at its September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Before the May inflation report landed, the probability of a September hike was hovering just under 50%. Looking further out, approximately 60% of market participants expect a rate hike by the October FOMC meeting. The September FOMC meeting will include updated economic projections and a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. A hold doesn’t eliminate rate hike risk.