The revision marks a significant deterioration from the 3.7 mb/d supply drop the IEA projected in its July report. A draw of 69 million barrels in July brought total observed global oil inventories under 7.9 billion barrels, a level last seen in April 2025. Cumulative stock draws since the start of the war have reached 410 million barrels, the agency said. The IEA now forecasts global oil demand to contract by 1.6 mb/d in 2026, a steeper drop than the roughly 1 mb/d decline it projected in July. The IEA projects demand will return to growth in the fourth quarter of 2026, expanding by 580,000 bpd, and rebound by 2.4 mb/d in 2027.