In the case of China, the first possibility is unlikely because Beijing understands what ails its economy. Western economists see weak consumption, a prolonged property downturn, deflationary pressure, a massive trade surplus and indebted local governments. A more useful explanation is that China is no longer optimising simply for short-term gross domestic product growth. Beijing is preparing for prolonged strategic rivalry with the United States, as economist Tan Kong Yam and others have pointed out. Beijing is trying to reduce technological dependence, preserve industrial capacity and withstand a longer period of Western pressure.