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Indian Rupee: CPI and RBI repo rate risk skew higher – MUFG
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MUFG’s Michael Wan notes India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to edge up to 4.4% year-on-year from 4.3%.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said inflation is largely under control, supporting expectations for rates to stay on hold near term.
Wan still anticipates policy rates to rise, shifting its projected 50bps hikes to start from the December 2026 meeting.
Inflation outlook and policy timing"In Asia, we will have India’s CPI inflation, which is expected to inch higher towards 4.4%yoy from 4.3% yoy previously."
"We continue to see policy rates heading higher in India, but we have pushed out the timing of our 50bps rate hikes to start from the December 2026 meeting instead."