The outlook follows an earlier revision to Kenya’s 2026 growth forecast. The Treasury cut the 2026 projection to 5.0% from 5.3%, citing the effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict on domestic economic activity. The National Treasury expects private capital to fund major infrastructure projects, which should also ease pressure on public finances. Even with the positive outlook, Treasury warns that prolonged geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices, adverse weather, weaker global growth, and disruptions to trade could derail the recovery it projects. For 2027, however, the government expects easing external pressures, stronger investment, cheaper credit, and resilient domestic demand to keep growth on the 5.1% path.