Mesoscale Discussion 1943 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Areas affected...Central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120304Z - 120500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Percolating cumulus is being monitored for deep convective initiation across central Wisconsin. While it is unclear if thunderstorms will develop, the regional environment is conditionally supportive of strong/severe thunderstorms. Accounting for drier and cooler conditions across WI suggests that buoyancy is somewhat more limited, but still supportive of deep convection. Despite the conditionally supportive environment, it is unclear if ascent will be sufficient to initiate and sustain deep convection. Nonetheless, convective trends will continue to be monitored given the number of candidate updrafts emerging in IR imagery.