ChatGPT’s bear range starts at $1.20, and XRP already trades beneath it. But when your opinion is about a rate decision, an inflation print, or where the market lands by year-end, spot exposure prices dozens of other things alongside it, liquidity, sentiment, unrelated flows, whatever happens overnight in a market you weren’t watching. Because every contract is backed by real capital, the prices work as a live read on what the market genuinely expects, which is why the odds tend to move before the headlines catch up.