The 10-year Treasury yield is perhaps the most important financial benchmark in the global fiat system, as it drives valuations and market trends worldwide. The 10-year Treasury yield can be thought of as a key barometer of the US dollar-based fiat system—a critical measure akin to its beating heart. That is why the 10-year Treasury yield is a major pain point for the US government. The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% in late February 2026. I expect the 10-year Treasury yield to keep climbing over the coming weeks and months—until it forces the Fed’s hand.