Mesoscale Discussion 1928 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and far southern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111840Z - 112045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon from eastern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and far southern New York. An isolated threat for damaging wind gusts may accompany any stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Developing/agitated cumulus are noted underneath an upper-level cirrus canopy as of 1830 UTC via recent satellite imagery. Effective shear of 30-35 kts and around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will promote some potential for a few stronger updrafts. An instance of marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out with any transient supercell structure that can develop.