Democrats pared their House losses to just 9 seats and actually gained a seat in the Senate, but it wasn’t an easy election to forecast. The uncertainty is something that inherently probabilistic models like our midterm election forecast, a.k.a. The current composition of the Senate is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, and Vice President JD Vance casts the tiebreaking vote. In that calculation, Democrats are favored to win the popular vote for the U.S. House by 8.7 points instead. Democrats are clear favorites in the House; the Senate is roughly a toss-up