Prediction markets repriced instantly, with implied odds of an October 1 shutdown on Kalshi falling from roughly 59% to 48%. Here's the tension traders keep missing: a lower probability is not a resolved dispute. Bitcoin traders pricing in political calm are reacting to a delay, not a fix, and this country has already eaten two shutdowns in 2026 alone. - Rep. Mike Johnson, Speaker of the HouseRep. Austin Scott was blunter, calling it smart to take shutdown chaos off the table while conceding one "probably works to the advantage of Democrats politically." Bitcoin Price Today: Three Fuses, One ChartOn August 12, Bitcoin is stuck below $65,000 after a run to $65,200 early in the week, and the shutdown is honestly the least urgent fuse.