The CNT/MDA poll (Aug 5–9, 2026, 2,002 interviews, MoE 2.2pp) shows Lula at 42.4% vs Flávio Bolsonaro’s 28.7% in the first round. Runoff edge In a two-person runoff, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 48.0% to 39.1%, with 10.6% blank/null and 2.3% undecided. Brazil’s 2026 race is tightening, but the CNT/MDA poll still gives Lula a double-digit first-round edge and a single-digit runoff cushion over Flávio Bolsonaro. Ask Open the full Ask Rio Times →The CNT/MDA Poll: What It Actually SaysThe CNT/MDA poll, commissioned by the Confederação Nacional do Transporte, is a heavyweight. According to the CNT/MDA poll, Lula leads the first round with 42.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 28.7%.