Saudi Arabia’s grand Vision 2030 ambitions may be colliding with a colder fiscal reality. Fitch Ratings warned Friday that Riyadh faces rising financial risks as oil prices soften and government spending balloons, threatening the kingdom’s plans for fiscal consolidation. Reuters sources have floated that Saudi Arabia wants much larger quota increases than Russia, moves that could win back market share but put additional pressure on oil prices. Fitch said fiscal tightening would ultimately come through modest spending cuts, stable oil revenues, and continued growth in non-oil income. Vision 2030 may be designed to break the dependence on crude—but for now, Saudi Arabia’s books are still hostage to it.