At its peak in June 2025, Dos Bocas processed roughly 190,000 b/d of crude oil (see the chart). Far from reducing the country’s reliance on foreign gasoline, disruptions at Dos Bocas have coincided with an increase in purchases from abroad. The move was justified as a deliberate strategy to secure feedstock for domestic refining, especially for Dos Bocas. Yet this narrative masks a more structural problem: Mexico’s crude output has been in steep decline. Water and salt contamination in Maya crude has already disrupted operations, most visibly in the late 2024 shutdown at Dos Bocas.