In line with expectations, the National Bank of Romania (BNR) on August 10 decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 6.50%. Under the official projections for the inflation trajectory, rather confirmed by independent analysts, BNR is not expected to change the monetary policy over the coming quarters, Erste Group says. There were no indications of a potential upward revision to the inflation forecast compared with the May projections, Erste Group says in a research note. BNR will publish the updated quarterly Inflation Report on August 13. Under the May 2026 Report, inflation is expected at 5.7% y/y in September, 5.5% at the end of this year (versus 5.9% y/y projected by Erste) and 2.9% y/y one year later.