Mesoscale Discussion 1922 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0931 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Areas affected...northern and central Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 111431Z - 111630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather is expected to increase this morning, likely necessitating a watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in thunderstorms, including splitting supercell structures, has been observed over northwest IN over the past hour or so. That activity appears to be associated with a zone of warm advection occurring to the north of an outflow boundary extending from west-central through southeast IN. A greater severe weather threat, mainly in the form of damaging winds with significant gusts, is expected to move into the area from the northwest in association with a bowing MCS ongoing across north-central IL. LAT...LON 40568700 41298690 41738638 41688496 40808486 40168505 39768545 39618586 40198692 40568700 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH